figured out how I am going to get rich, and I'm going to share my secret with you. I'm going to become a high-profile banking executive, do a horrible job, get fired, and then end up rolling in cash. These guys get paid so much for performing so bad, it doesn't really matter if we put an orangutan as CEO.
10. The Panic of 1907: The fourth so-called ”panic” in 34 years.
9. The Mexican Peso Crisis 1994 aka “The December Mistake” Punta !
8. Argentine economic crisis - 1999 If you have no money, is it a good idea to print more?
7. German hyperinflation - 1918-24 If you have to print a 1,000-billion Mark note, you probably have too much inflation.
6. Souk Al-Manakh - 1982 Try not to use post dated to buy stocks
5. Black Monday - 1987 Can we call a 23% drop in a single day a black swan?
4. Russian financial crisis - 1998 devaluation of the ruble and cancellation of debt is never good for a local stock market.
3. East Asian financial crisis - 1997 aka the Asian Contagion
2. Black Tuesday - 1929 — Really? One day, and not the entire Great Depression?
1. 1973 Oil Crisis — Big energy increases cause recessions
Analysis and Discussion with George Gero of RBC Wealth Management, Featuring Insight with Larry Levin of SecretsofTraders.com (Bloomberg News)
Yale professor Robert J. Shiller, the author of “Irrational Exuberance,” created one of the most useful and predictive measures of stock-market valuation: the cyclically-adjusted price-earnings ratio (CAPE).
As Professor Shiller explains here, the CAPE mutes the impact of the business cycle by averaging 10 years of earnings. It thus provides a good picture of the market’s value regardless of where we are in the business cycle.
There's a very strong correlation between the US economy and Singapore's (I think most of have shut up about the concept of decoupling). Most would have believe that the current crisis will start to subside once US's housing market stabilises, and so would Singapore's. The core of the stimulus plan would be to do just that (besides pumping money to save zombie banks). It presumes that the goal should be to get house prices rising again. The problem with that idea is that, even after a 25% decline, house prices are still way too high in the US.
Even if there is a government mechanism that could stop house prices from plummeting and artificially pump them up again, therefore, it would just postpone the inevitable.
Below is the Robert Shiller chart that makes this crystal clear (produced by the New York Times). The dotted line in an prediction of where the price should be. [click pic to enlarge] Simply, it means there's another 20-30% of the current price to go.
Barry Schwartz makes a passionate call for "practical wisdom" as an antidote to a society gone mad with bureaucracy. He argues powerfully that rules often fail us, incentives often backfire, and practical, everyday wisdom will help rebuild our world.
Japan, the postwar economic miracle, is on a fundamental slide. Fifteen years ago, it ranked fourth in the world in terms of gross domestic product per person, but now it has slipped to 20th.
WSJ’s Rebecca Blumenstein and Andrew Browne discuss China’s recent investment in natural resources, including a $25 billion deal with Russia for oil.
A superb video of the credit crisis, via Crisisofcredit.com:
The Crisis of Credit Visualized from Jonathan Jarvis on Vimeo.
How does the current crisis compares against the historic crashes? Check this out.
Has your portfolio plummeted? So has ours. Use the Comeback Calculator to calculate when your investments could return to their peak levels. Check it, just punch in how much your portfolio was worth at its peak, its current value, how much you contribute on a regular basis, and play with the annual return. It generates a nice Times-quality graph of how long it's going to take you to get it all back, and what the outlook is for years to come. Good way of putting the whole shebang in perspective.
http://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2009/01/06/business/20090106-comeback-graphic.html?ref=your-money
Professional Investment Advisory Services will be hosting an investment seminar on the 21st Feb, Saturday, from 1pm onwards @ NTUC Income Centre. Other speakers from DWS, UOB Assets Management and Schroders as well. Do check it out. Event is free.
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This is a pretty interesting presentation of the Singapore Budget. The more times the particular word is being mentioned in the speech, the more well represented in the diagram. This gives you an immediate snapshot of what are the key concerns addressed by the budget by word counts. [click to enlarge]
Remember when Dubai was said to have a quarter of the world’s construction cranes? Well, that was a myth. But so too was Dubai’s prosperity. The credit bubble’s deflation has hit Dubai very hard; and crushed the ex-pats who came in search of opportunity. Here’s the New York Times talking to a laidoff Frenchwoman named Sofia who came to work in advertising last year. She was so excited about prospects in the Gulf that she took out a 15-year mortgage on a $300,000 apartment:
“I’m really scared of what could happen, because I bought property here,” said Sofia, who asked that her last name be withheld because she is still hunting for a new job. “If I can’t pay it off, I was told I could end up in debtors’ prison.”US-style non-recourse loans look like heaven compared to debtor’s prison.
With Dubai’s economy in free fall, newspapers have reported that more than 3,000 cars sit abandoned in the parking lot at the Dubai Airport, left by fleeing, debt-ridden foreigners (who could in fact be imprisoned if they failed to pay their bills). Some are said to have maxed-out credit cards inside and notes of apology taped to the windshield.
The government says the real number is much lower. But the stories contain at least a grain of truth: jobless people here lose their work visas and then must leave the country within a month. That in turn reduces spending, creates housing vacancies and lowers real estate prices, in a downward spiral that has left parts of Dubai — once hailed as the economic superpower of the Middle East — looking like a ghost town.
No one knows how bad things have become, though it is clear that tens of thousands have left, real estate prices have crashed and scores of Dubai’s major construction projects have been suspended or canceled. But with the government unwilling to provide data, rumors are bound to flourish, damaging confidence and further undermining the economy.
"It is the markets’ job to reallocate money from the ignorant to the intelligent, from the lazy to the hard working and studious; from the naive to the educated, and from the speculator to the investor."
Sometime this year, taxpayers will receive an Economic Stimulus Payment. This is a very exciting new program that I will explain using the Q and A format:
Q. What is an Economic Stimulus Payment?
A. It is money that the federal government will send to taxpayers.
Q. Where will the government get this money?
A. From taxpayers.
Q. So the government is giving me back my own money?
A. No, they are borrowing it from China. Your children are expected to repay the Chinese.
Q. What is the purpose of this payment?
A. The plan is that you will use the money to purchase a high-definition TV set, thus stimulating the economy.
Q. But isn’t that stimulating the economy of China ?
A. Shut up.
Below is some helpful advice on how to best help the US economy by spending your stimulus check wisely:
If you spend that money at Wal-Mart, all the money will go to China.
If you spend it on gasoline it will go to Hugo Chavez, the Arabs and Al Queda
If you purchase a computer it will go to Taiwan.
If you purchase fruit and vegetables it will go to Mexico, Honduras, and Guatemala (unless you buy organic).
If you buy a car it will go to Japan and Korea.
If you purchase prescription drugs it will go to India
If you purchase heroin it will go to the Taliban in Afghanistan
If you give it to a charitable cause, it will go to Nigeria.
And none of it will help the American economy. We need to keep that money here in America. You can keep the money in America by spending it at yard sales, going to a baseball game, or spend it on prostitutes, beer (domestic only), or tattoos, since those are the only businesses still in the US.
Find out how much you'll have to save to be a millionaire. The rate of return should be net of inflation, e.g. if you expect the rate of return to be 8% and inflation to be 5%, you should only input 8 - 5 = 3%. Oh and by the way, the million isn't inflation adjusted.
Calculator powered by Artog
Apologies if this is not relevant, but I'm such a huge soccer fan I can't resist. Yes I know this isn't soccer as well, but just imagine if Arsenal could do this around the the Emirates Stadium!
This post was originally from [Environmental Graffiti ]
With the economic crisis onto us, financial issue have been thrown into our faces for the first time. The stress of housing loans, credit cards debts, car loans and insurances are being flung right at us, and burden us heavily in our sleep. Job security has suddenly becoming so looming large, that it is no longer the elephant in the room, it is that angered elephant threatening to stampede all over us and ruin our lives.
But lets's put things into perspective, did we have it TOO good? Was it really an issue that we can longer eat at Sushi Tei but have to settle for Macs? Was the MRT so derogatory for the white collar executives that the car-less are deemed for mediocrity in midlife?
These pictures made me realize what a huge gap in living standards is between Singapore and Philippines, even though the near proximity. Simply imagine this, how would you feel if your kids have to go through this?
If even these kids can summon the strength to live through meaningful lives, no matter how painful and poor, let us summon the strength to command ours as well. God bless.
Small figures writhe and wriggle through a seething mass of stinking garbage, searching for something so precious that they scour the towering mounds daily. Children from the nearby slums, some barely kindergarten age, wade and sift through piles of other people’s disregarded belongings, ignoring scraps of food and other perishables in the hope of finding the one thing that is key to their survival – wood.
Photographed by German photographer Hartmut Schwarzbach, these soot-covered children toil hard for a living as members of a charcoal burner’s camp in Manila, aptly named Aroma Smokey Mountain.
With mesh collecting-sacks gripped tightly to their chests, and sometimes barefoot, armies of little children rustle through the heaps of garbage, bagging any bits of wood they find hidden among the rubble. Once they’ve collected all the wood they can carry they deliver the load to their families, who man the wood stoves. Some of the families have lived beside the dump for years as they depend on the small charcoal production chain for both income and fuel – all other alternatives are completely unaffordable to them.
Along with their parents the children bring thousands of litres of water to extinguish the fires once the charcoal is ready. Wafts of acrid smoke coming off the burners fill their lungs all hours of the day, which together with the blistering heat make life on the charcoal mountain sometimes unbearable. But somehow, as with children everywhere, and in often the most inhospitable places, they still manage to smile.
This image of little Annalyn was taken on her ninth birthday. Finding a beat-out red armchair was the best birthday present she could have wished for, considering computer games and shiny bikes don’t exist in her world. Food is scarce so like many children who work on the dump, Annalyn looks much younger than her years due to malnourishment, but she hopes one day to go to school to learn how to read and write and become a teacher. She wants to be able to leave this life behind and support her family. Even at nine kids can have big aspirations. Until then she knows she needs to lend a hand making charcoal so her family can survive.
A staggering 40% of Filipinos live in abject poverty. That’s more than 30 million people; almost half the population of the UK. Many of them live in shanty towns in the cities, hoping for a better life, so work in places like the charcoal fields to earn some money. They often get to keep little of what they make as the local mafia demand a cut of the profits.
Unfortunately, corruption plays a prominent role in Filipino politics, with many of the country’s critics saying that it is because of this there is such an unequal distribution of wealth. It’s thought the government do have the resources for change and to provide a better standard of living for those below the poverty line, but until there is a tighter control on the corrupt forces at play, children like Annalyn may never achieve what so many other children in the world take for granted.
